Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
09 0x09a6…252a sports 320 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-2%) realized −$30 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%151W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$32
14 days−$89
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -2.4% -11.7% 61% 61% -12.0%
≤30d 310 +12.1% +1.4% 49% 49% -11.2%
≤90d 310 +12.1% +1.4% 49% 49% -11.2%
all 310 +12.1% +1.4% 49% 49% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 49% -11.2%
10% -8.3% 49% -19.7%
15% -17.1% 44% -27.5%
20% -25.3% 37% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses151 / 159
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions9
Markets (closed)310 / 320
History coverage27d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Over 76¢ 77¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 Under 49¢ 55¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+12%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Under 47¢ 54¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+15%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Under 48¢ 52¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Under 74¢ 60¢ $14 $12 −$3 (-19%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 Under 73¢ 42¢ $18 $11 −$8 (-42%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 52¢ 57¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 160 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $12 +$12 +100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $13 +$12 +96%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $13 +$12 +96%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $17 +$8 +44%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 Jun 17 $14 +$11 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $18 +$7 +38%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $18 +$7 +39%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $19 +$6 +32%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $19 +$6 +32%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $18 +$7 +38%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $19 +$6 +33%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $19 +$6 +32%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $12 +$13 +113%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $4 +$2 +37%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $19 +$6 +33%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 169.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $18 +$6 +35%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $12 +$13 +108%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $18 +$7 +36%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 172.5 Jun 14 $12 +$13 +108%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 166.5 Jun 14 $12 +$13 +108%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $17 +$8 +49%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $15 +$7 +49%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $11 +$4 +34%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $18 +$7 +38%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $18 +$7 +42%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $18 +$7 +42%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $13 +$12 +96%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $12 +$13 +113%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $19 +$6 +33%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 14 $11 +$14 +127%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $16 +$8 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $17 +$8 +46%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $18 +$7 +39%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $7 +$3 +43%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $19 +$6 +33%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 76¢ $19 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 71¢ $18 5h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 47¢ $12 7h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 13h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $18 18h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $13 18h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 72¢ $18 19h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 55¢ $14 20h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 75¢ $19 20h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 69¢ $17 27h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 73¢ $18 27h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $18 30h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 BUY Under 49¢ $12 34h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 68¢ $17 38h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 72¢ $18 39h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $12 39h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 73¢ $4 39h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 75¢ $19 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.23 · official $104.49 (match) · 563 history records