Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09a5…f70c crypto 615 markets active 6d ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$128 (-7%) realized −$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%279W / 336L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -11.4% -19.8% 53% 47% -20.0%
≤30d 280 -33.0% -39.4% 29% 28% -25.2%
≤90d 615 -16.1% -24.1% 45% 34% -17.4%
all 615 -16.1% -24.1% 45% 34% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 34% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 28% -25.3%
15% -38.0% 24% -32.5%
20% -44.1% 20% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses279 / 336
Open positions0
Markets (closed)615 / 615
History coverage42d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 615 Trades
no open positions (282 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$4 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1317 history records