Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

09 0x099e…b3c1 world 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL +$6,002 (+186%) realized +$6,440 · open −$438

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%4W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$189per market

Trades / day5.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-9.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-13.7%	-21.9%	33%	33%	-67.9%
≤30d	10	+0.5%	-9.1%	40%	40%	-34.4%
≤90d	10	+0.5%	-9.1%	40%	40%	-34.4%
all	10	+0.5%	-9.1%	40%	40%	-34.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.1%	40%	-34.4%
10%	-17.8%	40%	-40.6%
15%	-25.7%	30%	-46.4%
20%	-33.0%	30%	-51.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 91% · top 2 96% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$137 vs −$183 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.5 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$307

Realized+$6,440

Unrealized−$438

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses4 / 6

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions7

Markets (closed)10 / 17

History coverage8d

Avg bet$189

Trades / day5.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	Yes	23¢	24¢	$110	$117	+$7 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	12¢	2¢	$500	$94	−$406 (-81%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	31¢	22¢	$100	$70	−$30 (-30%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	58¢	62¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+7%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	53¢	40¢	$10	$8	−$2 (-24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$10	$6	−$4 (-40%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$5	$2	−$3 (-61%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$102	−$83	-81%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$102	−$91	-89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Jun 15	$21	+$19	+88%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	+$3	+32%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$113	−$113	-100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	Jun 12	$1,245	−$792	-64%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	+$30	+291%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Jun 08	$387	+$495	+128%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	4¢	$19	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	20¢	$102	2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	3¢	$11	5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	95¢	$726	5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	27¢	$102	6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	94¢	$40	12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	12¢	$500	14h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	BUY Yes	22¢	$104	15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	31¢	$100	21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	82¢	$901	21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	84¢	$4,254	23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	55¢	$267	29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	55¢	$11	29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	55¢	$55	29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	55¢	$917	29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	55¢	$15	29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	50¢	$21	44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	47h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	75¢	$10	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	94¢	$10	2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY Yes	37¢	$10	2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	10¢	$103	3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	SELL Yes	2¢	$175	3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	BUY Yes	34¢	$10	3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY Yes	1¢	$4	3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.66 · official $306.66 (match) · 48 history records