Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x0997…f30d other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$266 (+25%) realized +$261 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$31
sports 29% +$285
crypto 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +10.3% -0.2% 41% 38% +18.5%
≤30d 29 +10.3% -0.2% 41% 38% +18.5%
≤90d 29 +10.3% -0.2% 41% 38% +18.5%
all 29 +10.3% -0.2% 41% 38% +18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 38% +18.5%
10% -9.8% 38% +7.2%
15% -18.5% 34% -3.2%
20% -26.5% 31% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$26 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$261
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage5d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $78 +$42 +54%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$10 -51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$69 +113%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$52 -51%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$94 +307%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$97 +238%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 +$3 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$181 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $34 +$99 +291%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $16 +$40 +250%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $34 −$33 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $46 +$73 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $78 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $102 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $46 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 30h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $55 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.26 · official $58.58 · 50 history records