Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x0996…598d
weather · 212 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$856 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$920 · open −$62
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$920
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses39 / 160
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions13
Markets (closed)199 / 212
History coverage63d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 13 History 199 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196
7 days−$362
14 days−$386
30 days−$386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $26 $14 −$13 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? No 34¢ 38¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 6¢ $18 $3 −$15 (-82%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Yes 17¢ 64¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+276%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? No 54¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+85%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? No 67¢ 66¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 26? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 26? No 66¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 10? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 −$13 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $77 −$26 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $67 −$22 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 −$11 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +354%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $70 −$7 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $21 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $18 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $54 −$16 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $48 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $80 −$25 -32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $41 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $42 −$8 -20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $30 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$8 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 −$5 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $47 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 −$5 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $54 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $80 −$4 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $73 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$9 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $9 +$30 +336%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $12 +$26 +210%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$7 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 −$4 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $30 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$3 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $22 −$13 -59%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $18 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $64 −$31 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $3 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 75% −$668
world 14% −$130
other 4% −$152
economics 3% −$25
finance 2% −$3
sports 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 34¢ $8 27m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 28m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 31m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 33m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 34¢ $17 39m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 46m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 35¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 35¢ $2 48m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 35¢ $2 49m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 35¢ $3 49m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 49m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 35¢ $11 49m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 50m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 50m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 50m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 50m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 50m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 50m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 51m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 51m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 37¢ $18 53m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 37¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 53m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -11.5% -20.0% 18% 9% -20.3%
≤30d 118 -11.5% -19.9% 17% 8% -19.9%
≤90d 199 -2.4% -11.7% 20% 8% -16.9%
all 199 -2.4% -11.7% 20% 8% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 8% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 5% -24.9%
15% -27.8% 5% -32.1%
20% -34.9% 4% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.85 · official $48.70 · 1706 history records