Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
09 0x0993…3bcd sports 31 markets active 1d ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$10
politics 22% −$1
economics 1% $0
other 0% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 7 +18.0% +6.8% 57% 57% -9.6%
all 31 +12.2% +1.5% 39% 23% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 23% -9.2%
10% -8.2% 23% -17.9%
15% -17.1% 19% -25.8%
20% -25.2% 19% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage540d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $27 −$27 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 14 $12 +$10 +79%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs May 14 $17 +$12 +73%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 08 $17 −$17 -99%
Lakers vs. Magic Apr 08 $23 +$16 +70%
Warriors vs. Jazz Mar 21 $10 +$20 +204%
Pacers vs. Bucks Mar 09 $11 +$11 +104%
49ers vs. Seahawks Feb 06 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jan 15 $2 +$2 +117%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $190 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $190 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $190 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $190 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $4 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 25 $4 $0 -5%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 11 $4 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 23 $4 $0 -0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? May 20 $4 $0 +4%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 14 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 14 $589 −$1 -0%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 14 $590 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $228 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $27 26h
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $15 23d
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $12 35d
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 57¢ $17 62d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans BUY Delhi Capitals 53¢ $17 71d
Lakers vs. Magic BUY Lakers 59¢ $23 88d
Warriors vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 33¢ $10 101d
Pacers vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 49¢ $11 131d
49ers vs. Seahawks BUY Seahawks 76¢ $4 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 184d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $11 226d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 226d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $190 226d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 226d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $190 226d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 226d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $190 226d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 226d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $190 226d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $10 226d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $10 233d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $4 233d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $4 247d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 247d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 266d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 93¢ $4 266d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 97¢ $4 279d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $4 279d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $4 308d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $4 329d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records