Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:42:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

09 0x0993…5047 other 13 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$87 (-22%) realized −$85 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip

Net edge-42%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate20%1W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit8%portable

Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-37.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-31.0%	-37.6%	20%	20%	-66.9%
≤30d	5	-31.0%	-37.6%	20%	20%	-66.9%
≤90d	5	-31.0%	-37.6%	20%	20%	-66.9%
all	5	-31.0%	-37.6%	20%	20%	-66.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-37.6%	20%	-66.9%
10%	-43.6%	20%	-70.0%
15%	-49.0%	20%	-72.9%
20%	-54.0%	20%	-75.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -63% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -31% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$36 vs −$30 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.29 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$296

Realized−$85

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses1 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions8

Markets (closed)5 / 13

History coverage1d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	No	49¢	52¢	$49	$52	+$4 (+7%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	No	46¢	46¢	$46	$46	−$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	No	44¢	44¢	$44	$44	+$0 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	No	46¢	44¢	$46	$44	−$2 (-5%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	14¢	18¢	$14	$18	+$3 (+25%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	No	16¢	14¢	$16	$14	−$2 (-9%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	No	16¢	14¢	$16	$14	−$2 (-9%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	34¢	26¢	$17	$13	−$4 (-22%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$18	−$18	-98%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 26	$15	+$36	+240%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$41	−$40	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$44	−$43	-98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$21	−$21	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	BUY Yes	14¢	$14	26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY No	44¢	$45	27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	34¢	$17	27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	16¢	$16	27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	46¢	$47	27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	49¢	$50	27h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	16¢	$16	27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	46¢	$47	27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	18¢	$18	27h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$15	27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	40¢	$41	27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	43¢	$44	27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	21¢	$21	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.75 · official $295.75 (match) · 13 history records