Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x098d…69fb other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$14
politics 37% −$13
sports 6% +$65
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 +8.0% -2.3% 9% 7% -9.3%
all 120 +6.6% -3.6% 11% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 9% -9.4%
10% -12.8% 7% -18.1%
15% -21.2% 7% -26.0%
20% -29.0% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×10.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage117d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $237 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $190 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $232 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $355 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $193 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $208 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $537 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $190 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 10 $190 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $239 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $387 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $197 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $223 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? May 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $180 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $167 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $379 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $180 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $185 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $409 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 22 $215 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $224 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $233 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $214 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $229 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 23h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 2d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 2d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 2d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 10d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $40 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $40 12d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 13d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 15d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 21d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 22d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 22d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 23d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 23d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 23d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $251 24d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $251 25d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 25d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $190 25d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $232 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 359 history records