Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:02:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x098b…4851 politics 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$8
politics 40% −$9
sports 8% −$32
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 32 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 117 +1.8% -7.9% 7% 5% -9.5%
all 129 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 7% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 6% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 4% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×6.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 116
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage109d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $158 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $149 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $168 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $262 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 29 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $251 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $119 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $115 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $137 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $256 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $109 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $118 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $115 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $104 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $143 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $152 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $260 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $134 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $257 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $425 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $133 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $145 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $284 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $526 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $157 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $124 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 21 $149 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $128 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $133 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $127 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $137 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $15 59m
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $15 4h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 4h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 11h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 22h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 23h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 11d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 11d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 13d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 14d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 15d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 16d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 16d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $107 16d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $107 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 358 history records