Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0989…5a32 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate31%14W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$4
other 37% −$3
politics 8% −$1
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 18 -1.0% -10.4% 28% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 18 -1.0% -10.4% 28% 0% -9.9%
all 45 -4.8% -13.9% 31% 7% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 7% -10.3%
10% -22.1% 4% -18.9%
15% -29.6% 4% -26.7%
20% -36.5% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses14 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage368d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $81 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $16 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $22 −$3 -13%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $57 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $76 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -7%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 12 $9 $0 -2%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $13 +$5 +41%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $17 −$4 -22%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Nov 19 $12 $0 -1%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $3 $0 +7%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 24 $4 $0 +3%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $17 +$2 +12%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in June 2025? Aug 10 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 03 $1 $0 -47%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $36 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $43 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $40 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $38 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $26 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $58 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.75 · official $50.75 (match) · 162 history records