Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0983…a61a crypto 27 markets active 6h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$49 (-21%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -17.6% -25.4% 44% 41% -31.8%
≤30d 27 -17.6% -25.4% 44% 41% -31.8%
≤90d 27 -17.6% -25.4% 44% 41% -31.8%
all 27 -17.6% -25.4% 44% 41% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 41% -31.8%
10% -32.6% 41% -38.3%
15% -39.1% 33% -44.3%
20% -45.1% 30% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$17 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$7 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$9 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$8 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records