Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0982…92c6 other 594 markets active 2h ago coverage 515d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$164 (-1%) realized −$164 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%237W / 357L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$23
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$46
world 11% −$59
politics 7% +$164
culture 3% −$35
crypto 1% −$93
weather 1% −$89
sports 1% −$11
tech 0% −$22
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -56.1% -60.2% 38% 38% -24.8%
≤30d 17 -37.7% -43.7% 41% 35% -22.4%
≤90d 86 -43.8% -49.2% 21% 20% -38.9%
all 594 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 34% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 34% -11.0%
10% -18.2% 28% -19.5%
15% -26.1% 22% -27.3%
20% -33.3% 17% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

515d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses237 / 357
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)594 / 594
History coverage515d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 594 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $89 +$11 +12%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $11 −$6 -53%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $28 +$7 +24%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $2 +$10 +559%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? May 02 $4 −$4 -96%
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Apr 24 $13 −$11 -85%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Apr 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $3 +$4 +145%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $4 +$2 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 16 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-01-11? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Apr 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Apr 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in January 2026? Apr 15 $6 −$2 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 Apr 15 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in December 2025? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in November 2025? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Apr 15 $16 −$12 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in December 2025? Apr 15 $5 −$3 -62%
Trump out as President in 2025? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in December 2025? Apr 15 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in January 2026? Apr 15 $7 −$2 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Apr 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in January 2026? Apr 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 20 Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 7¢ $4 4d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 5¢ $1 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 9¢ $0 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 10¢ $10 6d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 27¢ $6 7d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 19¢ $4 7d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 26¢ $28 7d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 16¢ $8 7d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 16¢ $6 7d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 36¢ $4 7d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 36¢ $1 7d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 36¢ $1 7d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $4 7d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 7d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 21¢ $4 7d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 21¢ $4 7d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $10 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3105 history records