Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:41:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x097c…630a sports 815 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$636 (-4%) realized −$666 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%456W / 341L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days+$47
14 days+$176
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$146
other 13% −$215
world 4% $0
weather 2% −$60
politics 2% −$161
crypto 1% −$27
economics 0% −$55
culture 0% −$26
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +1.5% -8.2% 60% 56% -7.8%
≤30d 468 +6.2% -3.9% 62% 58% -8.4%
≤90d 797 -2.5% -11.8% 57% 54% -14.2%
all 797 -2.5% -11.8% 57% 54% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 54% -14.2%
10% -20.2% 45% -22.4%
15% -27.9% 35% -29.9%
20% -35.0% 26% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$16 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$310
Realized−$666
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses456 / 341
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions18
Markets (closed)797 / 815
History coverage251d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 797 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $45 $62 +$17 (+37%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $15 $29 +$14 (+92%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 87¢ 94¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 83¢ 100¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+20%)
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) Yangon Galacticos 48¢ 50¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) Grind Back 47¢ 48¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) Natus Vincere 64¢ 62¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Game Handicap: Enjoy (-1.5) vs Team Bald (+1.5) Enjoy 70¢ 50¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-29%)
Will Steve Hilton win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election? No 86¢ 99¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Enjoy 59¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Grind Back 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Grind Back 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Yangon Galacticos 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 78¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Yangon Galacticos 73¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 53¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 22¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 264 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $25 +$31 +124%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $25 +$4 +18%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $18 +$7 +40%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 18 $18 +$36 +197%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $18 +$4 +23%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 18 $25 +$23 +90%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $25 +$6 +26%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $25 +$5 +21%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$3 +31%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 18 $18 +$16 +86%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $25 +$4 +17%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $18 +$9 +48%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli Jun 17 $18 +$4 +21%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $18 +$1 +3%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Game Handicap: REF (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$28 +152%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $26 +$99 +388%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $25 +$10 +40%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $18 +$3 +16%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $26 +$74 +291%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Jun 16 $25 +$5 +21%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $25 +$46 +180%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 16 $40 +$7 +17%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $75 +$16 +21%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $40 +$9 +23%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $25 +$6 +26%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $25 +$8 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$12 +48%
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $25 +$5 +21%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $26 +$93 +363%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $40 +$6 +16%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $30 +$11 +36%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 78¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Enjoy 59¢ $10 1h
Game Handicap: Enjoy (-1.5) vs Team Bald (+1.5) BUY Enjoy 70¢ $18 1h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto BUY Nick Hardt 44¢ $25 1h
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) BUY Yangon Galacticos 48¢ $18 2h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 73¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 73¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 73¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 73¢ $10 2h
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) BUY Grind Back 47¢ $18 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $25 8h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys BUY Elina Svitolina 85¢ $25 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Alina Korneeva 80¢ $25 9h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 71¢ $18 10h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva 81¢ $18 10h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 85¢ $25 25h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $10 26h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 52¢ $25 27h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 67¢ $18 28h
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Jacopo Vasami 32¢ $26 29h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 76¢ $10 29h
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 53¢ $18 29h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 82¢ $18 29h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Fiona Ferro 83¢ $25 30h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 97¢ $18 31h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli BUY Marco Cecchinato 82¢ $18 31h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 33h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 82¢ $25 33h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 71¢ $18 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $310.21 · official $310.47 (match) · 1646 history records