Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
09 0x097c…5cde sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,198 (-9%) realized −$3,354 · open +$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%45W / 33L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$450est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,425
7 days+$2,054
14 days+$2,054
30 days+$1,899
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$4,576
other 7% +$1,010
crypto 3% +$303
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +40.0% +26.7% 90% 90% +26.7%
≤30d 14 +19.3% +8.0% 71% 71% +16.1%
≤90d 78 -4.0% -13.1% 58% 53% -18.0%
all 78 -4.0% -13.1% 58% 53% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 53% -18.0%
10% -21.4% 53% -25.9%
15% -29.0% 45% -33.0%
20% -36.0% 35% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$547) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$388 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$656
Realized−$3,354
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses45 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$450
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage87d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score No 64¢ 84¢ $500 $656 +$156 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend Jun 21 $506 +$327 +65%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 20 $506 +$288 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,007 +$303 +30%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $304 +$247 +81%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $503 +$122 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $503 +$138 +27%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $304 +$188 +62%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $548 +$369 +67%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $547 +$471 +86%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $408 −$400 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $127 −$125 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $506 −$93 -18%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 30 $380 −$256 -68%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $566 +$320 +57%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline Cristian May 22 $1,320 −$1,300 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $1,351 −$20 -1%
Istanbul: Hynek Barton vs David Jorda Sanchis May 22 $304 −$300 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov May 22 $396 +$193 +49%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $304 −$300 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Federico Cina May 21 $304 +$248 +82%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana May 21 $709 +$479 +68%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina May 21 $163 +$80 +49%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Facundo Acosta May 21 $563 +$395 +70%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Ann Li May 21 $565 −$554 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Katarina Zavats May 20 $905 −$895 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Alex Molcan vs Felix Gill May 20 $618 −$610 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Borna Gojo May 20 $254 +$3 +1%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jan Choinski vs Pierre-Hugues Herber May 20 $1,600 −$79 -5%
Geneva Open: Francisco Comesana vs Jaume Munar May 20 $304 +$213 +70%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud May 20 $203 +$148 +73%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 20 $422 +$254 +60%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Solana Sierra vs Anhelina Kalinina May 07 $678 −$522 -77%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx May 07 $295 +$124 +42%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Maya Joint vs Viktorija Golubic May 07 $203 −$120 -59%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Merida Agu May 07 $178 −$175 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dalma Galfi vs Anastasia Potapova May 06 $288 +$157 +55%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Apr 30 $579 −$570 -98%
Cagliari: Cristian Garin vs Nuno Borges Apr 30 $508 −$500 -98%
Aix en Provence: Rinky Hijikata vs Sebastian Ofner Apr 30 $252 −$250 -99%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Apr 27 $28 +$25 +89%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Hamad Medjedovic Apr 15 $632 −$625 -99%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Chloe Paquet vs Xinyu Wang Apr 15 $333 +$298 +90%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Miomir Kecmanovic Apr 14 $229 +$104 +46%
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego Apr 14 $229 −$226 -99%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luca Van Assche vs Tallon Griekspoor Apr 02 $1,348 −$1,333 -99%
Sao Leopoldo: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Facundo Acosta Apr 02 $700 +$326 +47%
Credit One Charleston Open: Peyton Stearns vs McCartney Kessler Apr 02 $500 −$493 -99%
Barletta: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Maxime Chazal Apr 02 $300 +$171 +57%
Barletta: Nerman Fatic vs Federico Bondioli Apr 02 $875 −$405 -46%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Vit Kopriva vs Alexandre Muller Apr 02 $350 −$344 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $505 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend BUY Gabriela Ruse 60¢ $506 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 63¢ $506 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $304 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $503 46h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 78¢ $503 2d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 61¢ $304 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $548 3d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 53¢ $547 3d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 36¢ $408 3d
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 64¢ $3 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce SELL Juan Manuel Cerundolo 53¢ $413 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 46¢ $124 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio SELL Camila Osorio 22¢ $114 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio SELL Camila Osorio 22¢ $3 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio SELL Camila Osorio 22¢ $7 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio BUY Camila Osorio 67¢ $380 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 63¢ $506 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 100¢ $886 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 64¢ $60 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 63¢ $506 22d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Jaqueline Cristian 48¢ $711 30d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Jaqueline Cristian 47¢ $610 30d
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul SELL Alex de Minaur 62¢ $1,331 30d
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul BUY Alex de Minaur 60¢ $340 30d
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul BUY Alex de Minaur 62¢ $1,011 30d
Istanbul: Hynek Barton vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY Hynek Barton 59¢ $304 30d
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone BUY Casper Ruud 53¢ $304 30d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Jurij Rodionov 64¢ $81 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.32 · official $648.50 · 182 history records