Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
09 0x097b…2907 sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$430 (+30%) realized +$408 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$204
other 45% +$129
weather 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +20.4% +8.9% 50% 50% +10.8%
≤30d 14 +20.4% +8.9% 50% 50% +10.8%
≤90d 14 +20.4% +8.9% 50% 50% +10.8%
all 14 +20.4% +8.9% 50% 50% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 50% +10.8%
10% -1.5% 50% +0.2%
15% -11.0% 50% -9.5%
20% -19.8% 50% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$70 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$408
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$91 -90%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $60 +$54 +89%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$201 +197%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $101 −$5 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $121 −$119 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $112 −$63 -56%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$48 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $200 +$179 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 16m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $182 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $96 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $60 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $101 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $19 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $102 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $49 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $112 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $379 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 52¢ $200 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.38 · official $122.38 (match) · 28 history records