Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:55:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x097a…11fc
crypto · 171 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$13 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses75 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)167 / 171
History coverage43d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 4 History 167 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 3.5 May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Score May 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 May 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 14 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 14 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-05-16? May 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $2 $0 +24%
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? May 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $2 +$4 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 13 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 13 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 13 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 13 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 13 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 13 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 13 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 49% −$29
other 44% +$17
sports 5% $0
world 2% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 25d
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3 27d
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 28d
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $2 28d
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 28d
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 28d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 28d
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $4 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 28d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 58¢ $18 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -26.0% -33.1% 50% 50% -32.3%
≤30d 38 -38.4% -44.3% 32% 29% -41.1%
≤90d 167 +6.2% -3.9% 45% 44% -10.7%
all 167 +6.2% -3.9% 45% 44% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 44% -10.7%
10% -13.1% 44% -19.2%
15% -21.5% 43% -27.0%
20% -29.2% 40% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.03 · official $7.04 (match) · 385 history records