Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:18:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x097a…faed world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$3
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$8
other 18% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 26 +0.6% -9.0% 27% 4% -10.1%
≤90d 31 +1.1% -8.6% 29% 6% -9.6%
all 85 +0.6% -9.0% 36% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage460d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 84¢ $147 $146 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $130 +$5 +4%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $129 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $128 +$2 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $128 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $144 −$3 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $289 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $263 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $328 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $175 −$1 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $132 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $140 −$9 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $154 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $168 −$18 -11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $15 +$3 +22%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,092 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $12 +$1 +10%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $157 −$2 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $145 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $140 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $126 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $57 −$2 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $16 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $951 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $175 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $77 +$14 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $1,042 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1,042 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $1,039 +$3 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Knicks vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 09 $14 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? May 08 $2 $0 +10%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $147 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $135 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $109 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $20 26h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $129 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $129 33h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $55 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $75 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $46 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $82 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $43 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $43 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $107 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $20 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $128 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $141 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $144 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $66 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $131 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $124 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.72 · official $146.19 (match) · 280 history records