Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:15:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0978…0d99 sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 437d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,132 (-9%) realized −$2,028 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%32W / 43L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$192est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$556
7 days+$556
14 days+$556
30 days+$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$2,187
crypto 32% −$6,749
economics 13% +$104
other 8% +$2,049
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +74.2% +57.6% 75% 75% +67.2%
≤30d 4 +74.2% +57.6% 75% 75% +67.2%
≤90d 65 +1.4% -8.3% 38% 38% -39.4%
all 75 +5.2% -4.8% 43% 40% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 40% -18.8%
10% -13.9% 39% -26.5%
15% -22.2% 35% -33.6%
20% -29.9% 33% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$219 vs −$217 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

437d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$2,028
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$192
Open positions5
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage437d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 61¢ 28¢ $122 $57 −$65 (-53%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 55¢ 52¢ $55 $51 −$3 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 44¢ 46¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+3%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) TheMongolz 33¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$32 (-98%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Saigon Warriors 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $115 +$265 +230%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $430 +$303 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Valorant: LAZER vs Fuego (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: ACE Masters Apr 21 $56 +$63 +113%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Acend (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Apr 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) Apr 20 $174 +$126 +72%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $220 +$180 +82%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) Apr 20 $228 +$172 +75%
Counter-Strike: Brute vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers S Apr 20 $229 +$261 +114%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 19 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 19 $193 −$5 -3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $73 −$14 -20%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Apr 19 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 19 $299 +$452 +151%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Apr 18 $102 +$127 +124%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 18 $169 −$169 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $510 −$510 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $160 +$39 +24%
Valorant: DRX vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Apr 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Apr 18 $233 +$269 +115%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 18 $90 +$210 +233%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $1,098 +$895 +82%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Apr 18 $430 −$298 -69%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Apr 18 $261 −$261 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 17 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Apr 16 $447 +$302 +68%
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Citadel Gaming (BO3) - North American Challenger Apr 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 16 $134 −$134 -100%
Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Apr 16 $106 $0 -0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $50 +$159 +317%
Counter-Strike: Zomblers vs FarmVille (BO3) - Dust2.us Eagle Masters G Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: EMPIRE vs Clockwork (BO3) - Dust2.us Eagle Masters Gro Apr 10 $14 +$17 +124%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs InControl (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 10 $128 −$14 -11%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Fake do Biru (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial Academy vs Infinite (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Apr 10 $2 +$15 +733%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Apr 10 $42 +$72 +171%
Counter-Strike: Team Aether vs BOSS (BO3) - Dust2.us Eagle Masters Gro Apr 10 $39 +$12 +29%
LoL: RMD Gaming vs RED Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Sea Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger League O Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers Apr 09 $26 +$11 +42%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Apr 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Valorant: Insomnia vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 2 Apr 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: InControl vs regain (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Nort Apr 09 $63 +$18 +29%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 09 $18 +$41 +237%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 09 $75 +$152 +201%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha Apr 09 $25 +$36 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 2¢ $2 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 3¢ $3 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Saigon Warriors 55¢ $19 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Saigon Warriors 55¢ $35 1h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 33¢ $34 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 96¢ $192 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 94¢ $188 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 20¢ $3 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 20¢ $3 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 20¢ $6 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 20¢ $1 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 20¢ $6 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 20¢ $1 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 20¢ $14 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 20¢ $5 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 34¢ $3 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 34¢ $31 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 40¢ $41 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 23¢ $24 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $44 7h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $55 9h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $6 9h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $62 10h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 55¢ $0 10h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 55¢ $3 10h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 55¢ $3 10h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 55¢ $3 10h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 55¢ $6 10h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 55¢ $41 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 50¢ $51 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.58 · official $154.60 (match) · 490 history records