Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:33:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x0976…8f4e
crypto · 112 markets active 0h ago
6.5score
+$1,001 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,084 · open −$70
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$930
Realized+$1,084
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses46 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$242
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage97d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 2 History 110 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$640
7 days+$204
14 days+$988
30 days+$1,129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 43¢ $500 $426 −$74 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $330 $0 −$330 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $211 +$652 +310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $424 −$157 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $317 −$263 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $216 −$105 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $106 +$154 +146%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $306 −$14 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $242 +$36 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $500 +$118 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $451 −$280 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $638 +$164 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $342 −$91 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $342 +$132 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $265 −$150 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $210 −$75 -36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $1,633 −$368 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $210 +$178 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $458 +$92 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,831 +$776 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $306 +$117 +38%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 09 $642 −$642 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2,351 +$89 +4%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-01? Jun 04 $19 −$19 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 04 $67 −$67 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Jun 04 $36 −$36 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $204 +$106 +52%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $104 −$46 -44%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $145 +$148 +102%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $814 +$761 +94%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 28 $166 +$78 +47%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? May 19 $560 +$63 +11%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $32 +$34 +105%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 01 $80 −$15 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 27 $34 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 27 $55 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 27 $86 −$17 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 27 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 27 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 27 $8 −$7 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 50% +$786
crypto 31% −$25
other 7% +$4
world 6% +$34
culture 3% +$51
tech 3% +$171
finance 0% −$11
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $260 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 29¢ $292 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $106 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $306 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $278 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $618 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +12.3% +1.6% 41% 37% -7.8%
≤30d 38 +2.4% -7.3% 42% 39% -1.7%
≤90d 106 -7.0% -15.8% 41% 36% -3.3%
all 110 -5.6% -14.6% 42% 37% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 37% -3.3%
10% -22.8% 33% -12.5%
15% -30.3% 25% -21.0%
20% -37.1% 19% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $929.51 · official $929.51 (match) · 330 history records