Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:01:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0976…9a11 other 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 321d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%38W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$1
other 33% +$3
politics 24% −$4
sports 4% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.0% -8.7% 38% 12% -9.3%
≤30d 28 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 41 +0.0% -9.5% 39% 2% -9.6%
all 96 -1.4% -10.8% 40% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses38 / 58
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage321d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 80¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 62¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $27 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $82 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $93 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 −$3 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $171 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $95 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $24 +$4 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $92 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $174 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $89 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $92 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $115 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $94 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $192 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $84 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 03 $86 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $12 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $85 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $87 −$2 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $16 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $96 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $139 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $87 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $95 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $95 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $27 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $6 $0 -4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $524 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $355 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $1,323 −$5 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $210 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $785 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $65 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $5 $0 +4%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $38 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -61%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $74 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $85 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $27 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $83 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $82 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $93 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $93 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $29 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $49 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $86 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $95 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $95 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $27 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $17 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $67 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $85 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $82 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $84 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.64 · official $84.27 (match) · 439 history records