Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:18:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0970…5ae4 crypto 253 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42,037 (+93%) realized +$42,034 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%71W / 220L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day82.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$1,282
finance 1% −$346
world 0% +$70
other 0% −$7
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +20.4% +9.0% 23% 23% -8.8%
≤30d 227 +0.8% -8.8% 22% 21% -7.4%
≤90d 291 +1.0% -8.6% 24% 23% -6.9%
all 291 +1.0% -8.6% 24% 23% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 23% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 20% -15.8%
15% -25.3% 18% -24.0%
20% -32.7% 16% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$59 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$2,632
Realized+$42,034
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses71 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)291 / 253
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$179
Trades / day82.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1,225 $1,210 −$15 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1,044 $1,134 +$91 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? Yes 13¢ 9¢ $315 $225 −$90 (-29%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? No 32¢ 52¢ $26 $42 +$16 (+62%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? No 49¢ 78¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+58%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? No 15¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 169 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 14? Jun 26 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 30? Jun 26 $84 −$84 -101%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 5? Jun 26 $0 +$2 +1028%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 23? Jun 26 $61 −$84 -138%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 26 $1 −$200 -19967%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 9? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 1? Jun 26 $11 −$22 -204%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 14? Jun 26 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 14? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 7? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 8? Jun 26 $30 −$38 -128%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 26 $0 −$135 -46838%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 26 $3 −$4 -147%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 27? Jun 26 $0 −$5 -932%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 3? Jun 26 $7 +$32 +467%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? Jun 26 $56 −$29 -53%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 3? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on April 25? Jun 26 $35 −$27 -76%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 3? Jun 26 $7 −$16 -211%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 5? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 26 $6 −$23 -399%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 20 - 26) Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 10? Jun 26 $5 −$7 -156%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 3? Jun 26 $2 +$2 +107%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 1? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 14? Jun 26 $6 −$35 -561%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 10? Jun 26 $5 −$6 -114%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on April 24? Jun 26 $87 −$80 -92%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 29? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 7? Jun 26 $66 −$20 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 23? Jun 26 $115 −$93 -81%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 22? Jun 26 $14 +$5 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 9? Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 30? Jun 26 $10 −$23 -226%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 30? Jun 26 $96 −$98 -102%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 26 $2 −$87 -3606%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 2? Jun 26 $2 +$3 +126%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 5? Jun 26 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on April 22? Jun 26 $104 −$122 -118%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 21? Jun 26 $3 +$489 +16120%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +150%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 20-26? Jun 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Jun 26 $726 +$1,347 +185%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $429 +$491 +114%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $196 −$191 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $16 +$82 +519%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 12¢ $128 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 47¢ $123 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $249 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 75¢ $246 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 23¢ $43 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 21¢ $97 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 31¢ $99 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 25¢ $50 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 22¢ $47 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 12¢ $32 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 12¢ $97 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $98 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $88 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 47¢ $227 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 45¢ $156 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,631.73 · official $2,629.23 (match) · 3500 history records