Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:33:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
09 0x096d…23ef other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 240d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$49 (+10%) realized +$64 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$162
14 days+$162
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$6
other 23% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+50.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +88.2% +70.3% 50% 50% +99.2%
≤30d 8 +88.2% +70.3% 50% 50% +99.2%
≤90d 9 +84.9% +67.3% 56% 56% +69.7%
all 10 +66.4% +50.5% 50% 50% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.5% 50% +19.3%
10% +36.1% 50% +7.9%
15% +23.0% 50% -2.5%
20% +10.9% 50% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +88% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$29 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$64
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)10 / 19
History coverage240d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 17¢ 28¢ $60 $98 +$38 (+63%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 75¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Paraguay? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 +$4 +86%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 29 $10 +$79 +768%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $51 +$65 +128%
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 28 $41 +$39 +97%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $150 +$87 +58%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 02 $120 −$120 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 75¢ $2 10m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 11m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 32m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 19¢ $41 37m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $10 38m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 41m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 42m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 27¢ $29 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $89 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 10h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 10h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 15¢ $21 25h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 25h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 25h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 25h
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 25h
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 25h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 25h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 25h
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND South Africa to score BUY 21¢ $2 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 26h
Heat vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 65¢ $100 82d
Heat vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 58¢ $50 82d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Blue Jays 86¢ $120 239d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.49 · official $107.52 (match) · 35 history records