Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x096b…9f3c crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate93%39W / 3L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% +$21
crypto 36% +$7
sports 1% −$12
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 23 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 42 +5.3% -4.7% 93% 12% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 12% -8.7%
10% -13.9% 12% -17.5%
15% -22.2% 12% -25.4%
20% -29.8% 7% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses39 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage617d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? Jun 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Jun 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 08 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 03 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? Jun 01 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 28 $27 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? May 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16? May 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? May 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? May 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 30? May 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 22? Apr 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? Apr 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Apr 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 26? Apr 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 18? Mar 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 26? Mar 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 12? Feb 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? Feb 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? Feb 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of December? Jan 21 $10 $0 +0%
Pelicans vs. Hornets Jan 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 24 $855 +$7 +1%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 11 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Trump say "Tammy Baldwin" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1? Nov 11 $8 +$8 +100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $12 +$8 +60%
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Nov 01 $8 +$12 +163%
Bitcoin above $69,000 on October 25? Oct 28 $11 +$5 +43%
Chargers vs. Cardinals Oct 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $643 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 45h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $27 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $27 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $27 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $27 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 44d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 49d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $27 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? BUY No 99¢ $27 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $27 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $27 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $27 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $26 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $26 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 26? BUY No 100¢ $33 119d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 136d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 99¢ $13 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.00 · official $27.00 (match) · 151 history records