Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
09 0x096a…269d world 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,057 (+46%) realized +$1,462 · open −$405
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$401
14 days+$679
30 days+$1,096
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$695
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +74.7% +58.1% 75% 50% +40.9%
≤30d 7 +69.5% +53.4% 86% 71% +47.8%
≤90d 9 +43.4% +29.7% 78% 56% +44.0%
all 9 +43.4% +29.7% 78% 56% +44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.7% 56% +44.0%
10% +17.3% 56% +30.2%
15% +6.0% 44% +17.7%
20% -4.4% 44% +6.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$15 · ×10.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×36.6 per $1 lost it wins $36.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$1,462
Unrealized−$405
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage42d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 42¢ 6¢ $479 $74 −$405 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $100 −$20 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $320 +$18 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $200 +$181 +90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$223 +223%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $300 +$277 +92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $611 +$386 +63%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 23 $100 +$32 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 7? May 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.36 · official $62.92 · 22 history records