Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x096a…4001 crypto 731 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$103 (-1%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%342W / 389L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$159
other 5% −$100
sports 2% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -4.1% -13.2% 38% 37% -9.1%
≤30d 221 -5.5% -14.5% 38% 38% -9.5%
≤90d 731 -11.6% -20.0% 47% 43% -12.8%
all 731 -11.6% -20.0% 47% 43% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 43% -12.8%
10% -27.7% 34% -21.1%
15% -34.7% 29% -28.7%
20% -41.1% 27% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses342 / 389
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)731 / 731
History coverage76d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 731 Trades
no open positions (144 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$36 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$44 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$96 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $75 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$48 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $42 +$29 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $42 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$50 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$34 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $56 −$37 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$71 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $53 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$63 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$45 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $22 +$53 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $29 −$27 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$77 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$71 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$23 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$24 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $23 −$21 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$20 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$85 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$78 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$17 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$84 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $52 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $16 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $14 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $46 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $148 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $23 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $67 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1694 history records