Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

09 0x0968…589f other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 676d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$179 (+5%) realized +$327 · open −$148

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR68%break-even

Win rate68%13W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$171per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit52%portable

Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$172

7 days+$334

14 days+$334

30 days+$334

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +68%

net ROI/market (all)-5.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+49.8%	+35.6%	100%	100%	+25.3%
≤30d	6	+49.8%	+35.6%	100%	100%	+25.3%
≤90d	6	+49.8%	+35.6%	100%	100%	+25.3%
all	19	+5.0%	-5.0%	68%	68%	-4.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.0%	68%	-4.4%
10%	-14.1%	53%	-13.5%
15%	-22.4%	47%	-21.9%
20%	-30.0%	42%	-29.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 31% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$75 vs −$133 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.22 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

676d coverage

Net worth$380

Realized+$327

Unrealized−$148

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses13 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage676d

Avg bet$171

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$378	$377	−$1 (-0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	65¢	2¢	$150	$3	−$147 (-98%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$100	+$11	+11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$101	+$60	+60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$101	+$58	+57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$361	+$43	+12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$101	+$55	+55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$102	+$107	+105%
Blues vs. Jets: O/U 5.5	Mar 15	$277	−$277	-100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5	Mar 15	$100	−$100	-100%
ELH: Sparta Prague vs. HC Kladno	Mar 15	$100	+$27	+27%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-15?	Mar 15	$100	−$100	-100%
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres	Mar 15	$294	+$157	+53%
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev	Mar 14	$200	−$200	-100%
Bruins vs. Capitals	Mar 14	$100	+$108	+108%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14?	Mar 14	$100	−$100	-100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-14?	Mar 14	$100	+$88	+88%
CEHL: Olomouc vs. Trinec	Mar 12	$249	+$148	+59%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 02	$497	+$89	+18%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 ATP Cincinnati Men’s Singles tourname	Sep 03	$20	−$20	-100%
Real Madrid vs. Atalanta: UEFA Super Cup	Aug 14	$50	+$21	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$79	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	62¢	$101	6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$100	6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$361	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	5d
Blues vs. Jets: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	61¢	$277	98d
Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	61¢	$100	98d
ELH: Sparta Prague vs. HC Kladno	SELL Sparta Prague	100¢	$127	98d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-15?	BUY Yes	45¢	$100	98d
ELH: Sparta Prague vs. HC Kladno	BUY Sparta Prague	79¢	$100	98d
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres	BUY Sabres	63¢	$79	98d
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres	BUY Sabres	66¢	$215	98d
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev	BUY Carlos Alcaraz	79¢	$100	98d
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev	BUY Carlos Alcaraz	81¢	$100	98d
Bruins vs. Capitals	SELL Bruins	100¢	$208	99d
Bruins vs. Capitals	BUY Bruins	48¢	$100	99d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14?	BUY Yes	53¢	$100	99d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$188	99d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-14?	BUY Yes	53¢	$100	99d
CEHL: Olomouc vs. Trinec	SELL Trinec	100¢	$397	101d
CEHL: Olomouc vs. Trinec	BUY Trinec	63¢	$249	101d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	59¢	$586	596d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	50¢	$497	663d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.49 · official $389.77 · 42 history records