Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0968…3c72 sports 32 markets active 11d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-13%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$2
other 38% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 30 -19.5% -27.1% 47% 47% -21.0%
≤90d 30 -19.5% -27.1% 47% 47% -21.0%
all 30 -19.5% -27.1% 47% 47% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 47% -21.0%
10% -34.1% 43% -28.5%
15% -40.5% 37% -35.4%
20% -46.3% 27% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage10d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -28%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -54%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +31%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $1 +$1 +67%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $1 +$1 +129%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 07 $1 +$1 +85%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $1 $0 +42%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 07 $1 $0 +44%
Libema Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Joanna Garland Jun 07 $1 +$1 +65%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 55¢ $1 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 12d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 62¢ $1 12d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 12d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $1 13d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 13d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $1 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 14d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 14d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 14d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 14d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 53¢ $1 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 15d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 15d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 16d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi SELL Benjamin Bonzi 57¢ $2 16d
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens SELL Gabriela Ruse 57¢ $2 16d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 38¢ $1 16d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 61¢ $1 16d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 33¢ $1 16d
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens BUY Gabriela Ruse 24¢ $1 16d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 54¢ $1 17d
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 63¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.95 (match) · 49 history records