Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:31:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0964…2e03 other 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%25W / 152L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$16
politics 25% −$12
sports 23% −$8
crypto 9% +$1
economics 7% $0
world 4% −$1
culture 3% −$1
finance 3% −$9
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 65 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 177 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses25 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)177 / 178
History coverage170d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $343 −$2 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $259 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $437 −$2 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $61 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 03 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 02 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $305 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $92 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 27 $147 −$3 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $348 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 22 $109 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 21 $107 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 21 $62 $0 -1%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $253 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $213 −$1 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $64 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $360 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 12 $61 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $55 1h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $2 7d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $2 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $60 21d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $61 22d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $44 29d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $44 29d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 44d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 44d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $65 54d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $66 55d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $53 55d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $53 55d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $61 55d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $61 55d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 55d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 55d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $51 55d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $52 55d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $61 55d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $61 56d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $48 56d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $48 56d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $53 56d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 56d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 90¢ $61 56d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 91¢ $62 57d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 91¢ $56 57d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $57 57d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $54 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.20 · official $54.20 (match) · 743 history records