Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0964…eaed crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$121 (-17%) realized −$134 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$186
7 days−$157
14 days−$157
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$94
other 24% −$21
sports 14% −$18
world 1% −$5
weather 1% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -35.7% -41.8% 29% 22% -31.0%
≤30d 49 -35.7% -41.8% 29% 22% -31.0%
≤90d 51 -33.9% -40.2% 29% 24% -29.8%
all 51 -33.9% -40.2% 29% 24% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.2% 24% -29.8%
10% -45.9% 20% -36.5%
15% -51.2% 14% -42.7%
20% -56.0% 6% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$134
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage35d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 +$13 +60%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $13 −$1 -11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $10 −$7 -65%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $45 +$16 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$23 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$1 +7%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$4 -21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $14 $0 -3%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$3 -12%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 16 $1 $0 -34%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Michael B. Jordan be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 +$16 +67%
Will Bad Bunny be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -19%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 15 $5 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $34 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 11¢ $10 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $10 28h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 29h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 29h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 4¢ $0 29h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 32¢ $3 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 35¢ $5 29h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 53¢ $10 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 29h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 31h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 2d
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 73¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.19 · official $43.19 (match) · 223 history records