Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:00:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0962…71e4 crypto 36 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-5%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$34
tech 2% −$29
sports 0% +$6
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -15.0% -23.1% 44% 36% -13.4%
≤30d 36 -15.0% -23.1% 44% 36% -13.4%
≤90d 36 -15.0% -23.1% 44% 36% -13.4%
all 36 -15.0% -23.1% 44% 36% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 36% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 33% -21.7%
15% -37.2% 28% -29.3%
20% -43.4% 28% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$23 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage3d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $205 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $104 +$97 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $309 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $104 +$134 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$24 +77%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$21 +81%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $13 −$12 -95%
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$28 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $200 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $223 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $89 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $56 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $238 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $91 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records