Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:59:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
09 0x0960…b8f9 sports 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-17%) realized −$58 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%29W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$57
other 8% −$8
crypto 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.4% -1.0% 67% 67% -1.4%
≤30d 7 -6.2% -15.1% 57% 57% -2.8%
≤90d 20 +11.8% +1.1% 45% 45% +1.9%
all 80 -20.9% -28.4% 36% 36% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 36% -26.8%
10% -35.2% 34% -33.8%
15% -41.5% 31% -40.2%
20% -47.2% 24% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses29 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage244d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 66¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$9 +93%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $14 +$6 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $14 +$6 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +70%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 11 $4 +$6 +172%
Magic vs. Bulls Apr 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Apr 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Apr 06 $6 +$4 +76%
Suns vs. Bulls Apr 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 05 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Tresean Gore vs. Azamat Bekoev (Middleweight, Prelims Apr 05 $2 +$8 +550%
UFC Fight Night: Lando Vannata vs. Darrius Flowers (Lightweight, Preli Apr 05 $3 +$6 +188%
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli Apr 05 $5 +$5 +93%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Manolo Zecchini vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Ma Apr 04 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light He Apr 04 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Wang Cong vs. Eduarda Moura (Women's Flyweight, Preli Feb 07 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Niko Price vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight, Ma Feb 07 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Amir Albazi (Flyweight, Main Card Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $2 +$2 +100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 05 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 22 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Orolbai (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 22 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Almabayev (Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 22 $3 −$3 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Nov 22 $6 +$4 +75%
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Menifield (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Nov 22 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Cerqueira vs. Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Nov 22 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $2 −$1 -46%
Rockets vs. Spurs Nov 08 $4 +$6 +150%
Cavaliers vs. Wizards Nov 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Celtics Nov 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Nov 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Thunder vs. Clippers Nov 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Suns vs. Warriors Nov 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Clippers Nov 04 $3 $0 +18%
Jazz vs. Celtics Nov 04 $2 +$8 +400%
Timberwolves vs. Nets Nov 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Lakers Nov 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Suns Nov 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Bulls vs. Knicks Nov 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Nov 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pistons Nov 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Delija vs. Cortes-Acosta Nov 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $33 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 4d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $14 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Hornets 60¢ $6 70d
Pistons vs. Hornets SELL Pistons 100¢ $10 76d
Magic vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 11¢ $1 77d
Cavaliers vs. Hawks BUY Cavaliers 25¢ $2 77d
Pistons vs. Hornets BUY Pistons 36¢ $4 77d
Hornets vs. Timberwolves BUY Hornets 56¢ $6 82d
Suns vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 20¢ $2 82d
Raptors vs. Celtics BUY Raptors 20¢ $2 82d
Spurs vs. Nuggets BUY Spurs 54¢ $5 83d
UFC Fight Night: Manolo Zecchini vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Ma BUY Manolo Zecchini 14¢ $1 83d
UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light He BUY Brendson Ribeiro 10¢ $1 83d
UFC Fight Night: Tresean Gore vs. Azamat Bekoev (Middleweight, Prelims BUY Tresean Gore 15¢ $2 83d
UFC Fight Night: Lando Vannata vs. Darrius Flowers (Lightweight, Preli BUY Darrius Flowers 34¢ $3 83d
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli BUY Thomas Petersen 51¢ $5 83d
UFC Fight Night: Wang Cong vs. Eduarda Moura (Women's Flyweight, Preli BUY Moura 26¢ $3 139d
UFC Fight Night: Niko Price vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight, Ma BUY Price 30¢ $3 139d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Amir Albazi (Flyweight, Main Card BUY Albazi 25¢ $2 139d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 146d
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Ruffy 50¢ $2 146d
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Hooker 23¢ $1 146d
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Moreno 45¢ $4 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.25 · official $32.75 (match) · 127 history records