Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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09 0x0960…e14c crypto 614 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$726 (-2%) realized −$672 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate51%302W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5,361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$2,338
other 8% −$103
world 1% −$451
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 229 -6.6% -15.5% 64% 38% -11.5%
≤30d 231 -6.8% -15.7% 64% 39% -11.5%
≤90d 596 -11.5% -19.9% 51% 31% -16.1%
all 596 -11.5% -19.9% 51% 31% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 31% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 22% -24.1%
15% -34.6% 16% -31.5%
20% -41.0% 13% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$30 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$5,361
Realized−$672
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses302 / 294
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)596 / 614
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$74
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 596 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1,512 $1,352 −$160 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $752 $848 +$96 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Up 91¢ 99¢ $706 $769 +$62 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $716 $738 +$22 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 64¢ 64¢ $484 $480 −$4 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 83¢ 100¢ $205 $245 +$40 (+20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 53¢ 100¢ $126 $236 +$110 (+87%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 76¢ 81¢ $142 $152 +$10 (+7%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Up 89¢ 100¢ $134 $150 +$16 (+12%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $123 $130 +$7 (+6%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Up 84¢ 98¢ $59 $69 +$10 (+16%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 67¢ 100¢ $35 $53 +$17 (+49%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 70¢ 84¢ $44 $52 +$8 (+19%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 10¢ 18¢ $22 $39 +$17 (+77%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 94¢ 94¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-39%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 95¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 6¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-84%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 51¢ 36¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 65¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $70 $1 −$69 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Down 10¢ 1¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-90%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-98%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Down 25¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$70 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $142 −$6 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $398 +$56 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $254 +$55 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$5 -14%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $401 +$35 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$29 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $95 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$61 +654%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$7 +331%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $109 +$12 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$7 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $95 +$4 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $114 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $388 +$51 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$51 -73%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$38 +425%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$8 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $137 −$131 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$46 +59%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $282 −$267 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $29 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $16 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $18 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $14 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $19 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $77 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $19 2m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,361.06 · official $5,265.53 · 3500 history records