Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x095e…5062 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$71 (-6%) realized −$67 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$209
other 21% +$81
crypto 4% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -19.2% -26.9% 36% 36% -15.9%
≤30d 22 -19.2% -26.9% 36% 36% -15.9%
≤90d 22 -19.2% -26.9% 36% 36% -15.9%
all 22 -19.2% -26.9% 36% 36% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 36% -15.9%
10% -33.9% 36% -24.0%
15% -40.2% 36% -31.3%
20% -46.1% 27% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$35 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$67
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions6
Markets (closed)22 / 28
History coverage6d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 59¢ 58¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $32 −$1 -4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $143 −$45 -32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $62 +$40 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$82 +134%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $38 −$38 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $58 −$57 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $28 +$74 +262%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $54 +$46 +86%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $56 −$55 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $97 +$43 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $79 −$78 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $62 −$61 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $58 +$42 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $61 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $32 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 49¢ $97 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $143 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $46 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $62 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $61 20h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $38 45h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $58 45h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $103 2d
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Tunisia $7 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $28 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 10¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $56 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 15¢ $16 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $54 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $28 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $21 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $70 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $58 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $62 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.00 · official $162.00 (match) · 40 history records