Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x095e…a311 crypto 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-4%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%142W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$138
other 16% −$26
sports 6% +$7
world 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +7.5% -2.8% 32% 27% -18.5%
≤30d 37 +7.5% -2.8% 32% 27% -18.5%
≤90d 81 -3.9% -13.1% 46% 42% -19.5%
all 257 -2.6% -11.9% 55% 51% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 51% -17.9%
10% -20.3% 46% -25.7%
15% -28.0% 39% -32.9%
20% -35.0% 30% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses142 / 115
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage104d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions (100 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $105 −$90 -85%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 +$13 +262%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$57 +1116%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$10 +197%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$37 +712%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$11 +23%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +276%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 05 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 31 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 31 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 57m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 34¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 60¢ $11 28h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 41h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 473 history records