Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x095b…8a05 crypto 817 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,253 (-10%) realized −$1,252 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate76%620W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$313
world 17% −$144
other 10% −$39
culture 9% −$217
politics 5% −$51
finance 2% −$31
sports 1% −$21
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.0% -12.3% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 -3.0% -12.3% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 811 -3.3% -12.5% 76% 40% -15.8%
all 811 -3.3% -12.5% 76% 40% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 40% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 40% -23.9%
15% -28.5% 26% -31.2%
20% -35.5% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$1,252
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses620 / 191
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)811 / 817
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 811 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $38 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 69¢ 70¢ $39 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? Yes 81¢ 72¢ $38 $34 −$4 (-12%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 24¢ 26¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 18 $57 $0 -1%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $35 −$4 -10%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $76 −$4 -5%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 −$2 -6%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $172 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 04 $192 +$8 +4%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Apr 27 $305 −$15 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 27 $67 −$9 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 27 $455 −$13 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 27 $24 −$4 -17%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 26 $401 −$2 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 26 $288 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 26 $100 −$4 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Apr 26 $12 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Drake feature Chris Brown on ICEMAN? Apr 26 $188 −$4 -2%
Will Shonique Williams advance from the CA-41 primary election? Apr 26 $187 −$4 -2%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Donald" or "Trump" this week? Apr 26 $12 −$4 -37%
Will Drake feature 2 Chainz on ICEMAN? Apr 26 $47 −$6 -14%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Iran" this week? Apr 26 $18 −$4 -25%
Will Drake feature Kendrick Lamar on ICEMAN? Apr 26 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Danish People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark? Apr 26 $458 −$13 -3%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "S&P" this week? Apr 26 $36 −$21 -58%
Will Drake feature Tems on ICEMAN? Apr 26 $58 −$5 -9%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Bitcoin" this week? Apr 26 $196 −$5 -3%
Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Apr 26 $439 −$14 -3%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Stock" this week? Apr 26 $194 −$6 -3%
Will Drake feature Sampha on ICEMAN? Apr 26 $12 $0 -2%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater Apr 26 $546 −$199 -36%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Warsh" this week? Apr 26 $164 −$118 -72%
Will Calvin Lee advance from the CA-34 primary election? Apr 26 $99 −$29 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $36 3m
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 71¢ $39 11m
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 11m
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 62¢ $38 11m
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 12m
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 19m
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? BUY Yes 81¢ $38 24m
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $0 28m
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $39 31m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 24¢ $8 39m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 24¢ $0 49m
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $19 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 56¢ $36 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $56 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 30¢ $52 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $31 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $35 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 32¢ $0 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 32¢ $4 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 32¢ $4 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 32¢ $64 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $37 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $38 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $17 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $16 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $16 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $38 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $19 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 34¢ $38 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.62 · official $165.62 (match) · 3500 history records