Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0957…5db6 weather 727 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7,088 (+4%) realized +$7,088 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate92%671W / 55L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day85.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% −$709
crypto 7% −$994
finance 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -18.0% -25.8% 52% 13% -11.6%
≤30d 685 -3.0% -12.2% 92% 2% -10.4%
≤90d 726 -2.8% -12.1% 92% 2% -10.4%
all 726 -2.8% -12.1% 92% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 2% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 1% -19.0%
15% -28.2% 1% -26.8%
20% -35.2% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$74 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,088
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses671 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)726 / 727
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$237
Trades / day85.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 726 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $195 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $128 −$19 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $121 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $172 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $142 −$18 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $168 +$63 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $115 −$34 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $125 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $222 −$25 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $140 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $150 −$72 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $163 +$45 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $205 −$27 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $122 −$33 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $257 +$29 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $186 −$63 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $240 −$56 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $178 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $140 −$60 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $191 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $186 −$48 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $168 +$28 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $222 −$37 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $204 −$46 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $407 −$133 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $166 −$43 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $505 +$556 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $181 −$88 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $180 −$127 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $208 −$119 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $160 −$20 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $148 +$174 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $211 −$51 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $163 +$44 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $133 −$31 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $193 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $137 −$55 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $203 −$123 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $147 −$95 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $186 −$55 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $173 −$71 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $127 −$47 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,157 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,940 +$9 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,214 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $228 −$34 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $132 −$80 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $159 −$58 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $42 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $23 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $23 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $16 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $24 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $24 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $38 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $14 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $36 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $36 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $14 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $20 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $31 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records