Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:50:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0954…2eef other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%4W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 24% −$2
other 24% $0
politics 19% $0
economics 14% $0
world 10% $0
crypto 5% $0
finance 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 23% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses4 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage118d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $99 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $99 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $99 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $102 −$2 -2%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $203 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 10 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $102 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $102 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $102 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $98 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $98 21h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $98 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $98 25d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $99 28d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $99 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $99 39d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $99 43d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $99 43d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $99 43d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 44d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $99 46d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $99 52d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $99 52d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $100 70d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $100 71d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $100 73d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $100 74d
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $100 77d
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $100 78d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $100 80d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $37 81d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $63 81d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 89d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 90d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $100 99d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $102 100d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $102 103d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $102 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records