Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x0954…012a
sports · 1408 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$194 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$697 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$477
Realized−$697
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses712 / 681
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$576
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1393 / 1408
History coverage118d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 15 History 1393 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$209
14 days−$255
30 days+$642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 55¢ 56¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Over 58¢ 58¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 63¢ 62¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 55¢ 55¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 53¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ 50¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ 48¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 44¢ 44¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 50¢ 48¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Ben Shelton 66¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 22¢ 11¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-49%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Under 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $41 +$31 +74%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $41 +$32 +78%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $41 +$42 +103%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $41 +$32 +78%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 +$17 +41%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 14 $41 +$67 +163%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $41 +$27 +65%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $41 +$43 +104%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $41 +$33 +81%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 +$33 +81%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $41 +$29 +72%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $41 +$41 +99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $41 +$31 +74%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $41 +$33 +81%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $40 +$40 +99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $41 +$32 +78%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 +$37 +91%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $41 +$29 +72%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $41 +$33 +81%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 +$36 +88%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $41 +$33 +81%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 13 $39 +$28 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $41 +$27 +66%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $40 +$33 +81%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $40 +$40 +99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% +$240
crypto 24% −$348
other 5% −$633
world 0% +$16
finance 0% +$28
weather 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 66¢ $10 14m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $10 16m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $41 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $41 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 44¢ $41 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 63¢ $41 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $41 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 55¢ $41 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $41 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $41 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $41 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 54¢ $41 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 7h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $41 8h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $57 10h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $41 10h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 37¢ $41 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $40 13h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 55¢ $41 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $41 14h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $0 16h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 16h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 16h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $41 17h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 56¢ $41 19h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $41 19h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 57¢ $41 19h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 56¢ $41 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +0.6% -9.0% 54% 54% -5.9%
≤30d 606 +1.2% -8.4% 55% 55% -6.0%
≤90d 1345 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 48% -10.4%
all 1393 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 47% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 47% -10.6%
10% -21.1% 46% -19.1%
15% -28.7% 45% -26.9%
20% -35.7% 42% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $476.92 · official $477.00 (match) · 3500 history records