Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0953…cf99 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%23W / 29L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$9
world 37% +$3
sports 13% +$3
politics 5% +$1
crypto 3% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 12 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -9.2%
all 52 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 6% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 6% -8.4%
10% -19.6% 2% -17.1%
15% -27.3% 2% -25.1%
20% -34.5% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.32 per $1 lost it wins $4.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses23 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage472d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $94 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $44 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $7 $0 +7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $4 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $48 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $35 $0 +0%
Chiefs vs. Titans Dec 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $44 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $16 +$7 +43%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $14 +$2 +10%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2025? Oct 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 20 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win The 2025 Open Championship? Aug 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 27 $7 $0 +2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $8 $0 +2%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -78%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Nicolae Ciucă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $18 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 04 $17 $0 +2%
Megaquake in March? Mar 30 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $1 $0 -19%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $1 $0 -9%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $16 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $49 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $44 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $44 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $19 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $25 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $45 28h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 32h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 32h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 36h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $6 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $45 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $32 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $28 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $34 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $4 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.67 · official $48.67 (match) · 168 history records