Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0952…a44b culture 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$278 (-1%) realized −$347 · open +$69
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate67%69W / 34L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$609now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$83
14 days+$589
30 days−$1,535
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$192
tech 25% +$811
culture 18% −$504
politics 17% −$2,918
world 5% +$1,886
sports 2% +$257
crypto 1% +$31
finance 0% −$16
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +17.6% +6.4% 100% 67% +6.2%
≤30d 13 +22.5% +10.9% 85% 54% -30.7%
≤90d 48 -24.4% -31.6% 48% 31% -5.3%
all 103 -1.1% -10.6% 67% 34% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 34% -8.5%
10% -19.1% 27% -17.3%
15% -26.9% 17% -25.3%
20% -34.1% 14% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$141 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$609
Realized−$347
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses69 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage248d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? No 19¢ 22¢ $356 $405 +$49 (+14%)
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $184 $204 +$20 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Australia F Jun 20 $289 +$25 +9%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the Mexico vs South Ko Jun 19 $181 +$57 +32%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 18 $168 +$67 +40%
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 18 $107 +$66 +62%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 17 $48 +$4 +7%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 3 weeks? Jun 16 $907 +$64 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $114 +$267 +234%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI Jun 13 $61 +$29 +47%
Will the announcers say "Dangerous" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wo Jun 13 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 08 $1,507 −$1,417 -94%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $727 −$709 -97%
Will Drake have exactly 9 songs in the Billboard top 10? May 28 $20 +$2 +8%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song May 23 $53 −$53 -99%
Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200? May 23 $47 −$45 -95%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 23 $42 −$40 -95%
Will Drake have exactly 5 songs in the Billboard top 10? May 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Drake have exactly 4 songs in the Billboard top 10? May 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Drake have exactly 7 songs in the Billboard top 10? May 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 16 $41 −$39 -97%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $292 +$370 +127%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $607 +$392 +64%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $257 +$742 +288%
Will Trump say "Nixon" during Chinese State Banquet? May 14 $22 −$22 -97%
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 20 May 08 $68 +$37 +54%
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? May 08 $651 +$76 +12%
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June Apr 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April Apr 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026? Apr 25 $774 −$774 -100%
Will Trump say "Paper tiger" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 02 $656 +$901 +137%
Will Jensen Huang be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Apr 01 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Kai Cenat win Streamer of the Year at the 2025 Streamer Awards? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? Apr 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Will AI be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Apr 01 $27 −$14 -51%
Will Ryanair say "Starlink" during earnings call? Apr 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Will "Epstein" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes? Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" while addressing the nation on December 17? Apr 01 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Apr 01 $63 −$63 -100%
Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRA Apr 01 $91 −$77 -85%
Will Drake's next album debut No.1 on Billboard 200? Apr 01 $120 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Fat" during the Signing Ceremony on Wednesday? Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Jesus" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes? Apr 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Starmer say "Conservative" during the next Prime Minister's Quest Apr 01 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Too Late" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Apr 01 $38 +$12 +31%
Will Melania say "Son" or "Barron" during Fostering the Future Togethe Apr 01 $50 +$25 +51%
Will Ryanair say "Union" during earnings call? Feb 06 $5 $0 +9%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Feb 06 $104 +$96 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 1h
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 1h
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY No 19¢ $368 8h
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY Yes 19¢ $133 8h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Australia F BUY Yes 94¢ $30 6d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Australia F BUY Yes 91¢ $259 6d
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the Mexico vs South Ko BUY No 75¢ $181 7d
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia SELL No 30¢ $58 8d
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY No 71¢ $61 8d
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY No 71¢ $107 8d
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY No 33¢ $2 8d
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY No 33¢ $105 8d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 93¢ $48 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $380 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $53 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 12d
Will the announcers say "Dangerous" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wo BUY Yes 75¢ $30 13d
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI BUY No 67¢ $61 13d
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 SELL No $11 17d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 SELL Yes $19 17d
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 SELL No $32 17d
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 3 weeks? BUY No 94¢ $65 18d
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 3 weeks? BUY No 93¢ $842 18d
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 BUY No $120 18d
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 BUY No $122 19d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY Yes $60 19d
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 BUY No $114 20d
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 BUY No $120 20d
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 BUY No $67 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $608.92 · official $606.98 (match) · 755 history records