Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0952…a336 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$102 (-7%) realized −$96 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$128
sports 15% +$29
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 36% -33.6%
≤30d 28 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 36% -33.6%
≤90d 28 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 36% -33.6%
all 28 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 36% -33.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 36% -33.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 25% -39.9%
15% -31.2% 21% -45.8%
20% -37.9% 14% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,114
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)28 / 36
History coverage3d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1,000 $995 −$5 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 74¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 79¢ 78¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 56¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 65¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$3 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +7%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$7 +143%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +82%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 −$3 -51%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$1 +15%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $802 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $6 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 3h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 81¢ $5 4h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 13h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 28h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 28h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,114.40 · official $1,114.40 (match) · 68 history records