Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x0950…526d crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-3%) realized −$40 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate38%31W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% +$2
sports 36% −$34
other 14% +$26
crypto 10% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -74.4% -76.8% 17% 17% -14.6%
≤30d 35 -32.3% -38.8% 43% 31% -16.6%
≤90d 81 -24.1% -31.3% 38% 30% -17.2%
all 81 -24.1% -31.3% 38% 30% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 30% -17.2%
10% -37.9% 27% -25.1%
15% -43.9% 22% -32.4%
20% -49.4% 17% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses31 / 50
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage35d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $95 $111 +$15 (+16%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $52 $50 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$16 +54%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $26 −$15 -60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $6 +$4 +80%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs Jun 02 $9 +$10 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 02 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag Jun 02 $33 −$3 -8%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division P Jun 02 $44 +$6 +13%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Jun 02 $11 +$6 +54%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $6 +$2 +34%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $9 +$3 +29%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 02 $26 +$10 +40%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 01 $28 +$7 +25%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $23 +$1 +6%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Q May 31 $9 +$4 +40%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 29 $27 +$2 +9%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca (BO5) - ESL Challenger League North Americ May 29 $34 +$2 +7%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito De May 27 $16 −$12 -73%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 27 $3 $0 -13%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $7 $0 +5%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 18 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 18 $4 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $96 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 6h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $16 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 17h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 18h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 21h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 21h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 21h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 21h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 21h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 21h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.06 · official $162.34 (match) · 645 history records