Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x094f…3f30 world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%21W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1
politics 21% $0
other 16% −$1
sports 14% −$13
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 23 +19.5% +8.1% 22% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 70 +3.7% -6.2% 30% 3% -9.5%
all 71 +2.2% -7.5% 30% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 3% -10.0%
10% -16.4% 1% -18.6%
15% -24.4% 1% -26.5%
20% -31.8% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses21 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage486d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 83¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $33 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $39 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $17 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $63 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $70 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $68 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $103 +$2 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $3 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $33 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $31 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $31 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $31 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $31 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $58 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $64 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $33 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $18 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $14 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $19 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $37 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $33 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $16 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $32 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.80 · official $33.20 · 253 history records