trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -9.7% | -18.3% | 0% | 0% | -12.8% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +20.6% | +9.2% | 27% | 9% | -5.4% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +20.6% | +9.2% | 27% | 9% | -5.4% |
| all | 30 | +5.6% | -4.5% | 40% | 10% | -8.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.5% | 10% | -8.3% |
| 10% | -13.6% | 10% | -17.0% |
| 15% | -22.0% | 7% | -25.1% |
| 20% | -29.6% | 7% | -32.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 68¢ | 68¢ | $45 | $45 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Alberta join the US? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $45 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 17 | $10 | −$2 | -19% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 07 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $52 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 04 | $79 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 30 | $38 | −$1 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 29 | $47 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 29 | $7 | +$20 | +280% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 26 | $6 | −$2 | -25% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 26 | $1 | $0 | -12% |
| Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 09 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 01 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Eric Adams a Republican before April? | Mar 31 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 31 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? | Mar 30 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| $jellyjelly FDV over $50m on Friday? | Mar 30 | $18 | $0 | +1% |
| PartyDAO airdrop in Q1 2025? | Mar 27 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? | Mar 26 | $17 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 24 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 22 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $16 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? | Mar 19 | $6 | −$6 | -98% |
| Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? | Mar 15 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on March 5? | Mar 05 | $21 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump say 'terrible' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? | Mar 05 | $17 | +$4 | +22% |
| Jazz vs. Wizards | Mar 05 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Arizona State vs. Arizona | Mar 05 | $17 | $0 | -2% |
| Kings vs. Nuggets | Mar 05 | $17 | +$1 | +4% |
| Evansville vs. Indiana State | Mar 04 | $8 | +$8 | +100% |