Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x094d…7922 world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$9
other 27% −$9
politics 16% +$1
sports 11% $0
economics 5% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 62% 12% -8.2%
≤30d 22 -0.6% -10.1% 45% 5% -10.2%
≤90d 76 -0.9% -10.3% 34% 1% -9.8%
all 81 -2.1% -11.4% 35% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 1% -10.0%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 53
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage531d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 63¢ 62¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $88 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $29 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $33 −$1 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $58 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $97 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $17 +$2 +10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $84 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $95 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $140 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $58 −$10 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $13 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $8 −$1 -14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $41 $0 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $2 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $5 $0 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $4 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $46 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $8 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $85 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $5 $0 -5%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $2 $0 -10%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $121 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $3 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $85 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $39 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $5 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $15 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $18 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $37 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 65¢ $34 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 56¢ $30 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 33h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $33 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $33 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $23 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $13 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $17 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $7 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $5 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $17 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $13 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $4 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $26 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.00 (match) · 327 history records