Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x094c…67d7 crypto 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 379d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$50
14 days+$35
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$1
other 24% −$17
tech 22% −$2
world 21% −$1
sports 4% +$25
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.8% -3.4% 25% 12% -8.4%
≤30d 11 -10.3% -18.9% 27% 18% -9.1%
≤90d 16 -13.3% -21.6% 38% 12% -9.4%
all 43 -5.0% -14.0% 37% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 5% -9.5%
10% -22.2% 5% -18.1%
15% -29.7% 2% -26.0%
20% -36.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

379d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage379d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jun 23 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $715 $0 +0%
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect Jun 23 $724 −$1 -0%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $98 +$53 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 18 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $554 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $585 −$1 -0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $21 −$21 -99%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha Jun 03 $21 +$7 +32%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 19? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 11 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Mar 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on January 14? Feb 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 23 $30 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on December 25? Jan 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Hoffenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Dec 24 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 25? Dec 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 25? Dec 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $160 on September 13? Nov 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Oct 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Sep 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Aug 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3100 on July 23? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 23 $20 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 20 $243 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of UDMR? Jun 20 $241 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 10 $242 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Jun 10 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 09 $225 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $233 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL No 99¢ $710 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect SELL No 100¢ $722 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $571 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 5d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $555 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $585 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 64¢ $98 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 51¢ $14 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $21 20d
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 75¢ $21 41d
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 42d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $12 69d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $35 83d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $20 83d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $15 83d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $25 97d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $12 97d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $10 97d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $15 97d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $13 137d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $17 137d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $30 137d
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $30 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.01 · official $15.01 (match) · 116 history records