Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
09 0x094a…e4a9 sports 290 markets active 1h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,793 (+7%) realized +$3,788 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate57%156W / 120L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$352est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$4,731now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$459
7 days+$613
14 days+$454
30 days−$588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$2,015
sports 37% −$2,552
culture 12% −$502
world 5% +$782
politics 3% +$4,019
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +16.6% +5.5% 100% 57% +10.7%
≤30d 25 -21.5% -29.0% 52% 32% -18.2%
≤90d 170 -7.2% -16.0% 52% 38% -13.6%
all 276 -5.5% -14.5% 57% 39% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 39% -2.1%
10% -22.7% 31% -11.5%
15% -30.1% 22% -20.0%
20% -37.0% 18% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$118 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$4,731
Realized+$3,788
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses156 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$352
Open positions14
Markets (closed)276 / 290
History coverage396d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $650 +$275 +42%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch Jun 25 $14 +$2 +14%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $714 +$181 +25%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 24 $382 +$12 +3%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $167 +$3 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 22 $320 +$10 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $493 +$129 +26%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $95 −$95 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $66 −$64 -96%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 11 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $260 +$1 +0%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 09 $13 +$6 +51%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 09 $527 +$23 +4%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $265 +$230 +87%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $156 −$156 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $367 −$362 -99%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 08 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $305 −$305 -100%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $96 −$96 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $132 −$130 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 02 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 02 $400 −$384 -96%
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio May 30 $312 +$357 +114%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 28 $34 −$10 -28%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group May 27 $61 +$132 +217%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Glamorgan May 22 $1 $0 +6%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs WIP Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group C May 21 $99 −$98 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $115 −$8 -7%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri May 21 $125 +$152 +122%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 19 $209 +$178 +85%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs All Gamers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Chin May 19 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: LUA Gaming vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season May 19 $1 $0 +24%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal May 18 $77 +$151 +195%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO3) - Esports Worl May 18 $86 −$86 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $119 +$378 +317%
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $400 +$113 +28%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $124 +$16 +13%
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $559 +$134 +24%
Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $990 +$101 +10%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 16 $70 +$130 +186%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: EVOS vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - MPL Indonesia May 15 $1 $0 +28%
Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 15 $459 +$108 +23%
LoL: New Meta vs RAYN Clocks (BO3) - LJL Regular Season May 15 $10 +$3 +31%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO3) - Espor May 12 $12 $0 +2%
Valorant: Joblife vs WIP Esports (BO5) - VCL France: Revolution Stage May 11 $7 $0 +3%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 11 $45 +$3 +6%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 11 $125 −$125 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 11 $161 −$161 -100%
Valorant: REBORN vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO5) - VCL Türkiye: Birlik Play May 11 $0 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $46 1h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $15 1h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $15 1h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $7 2h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $7 2h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $5 3h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $7 3h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $8 3h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $10 5h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $3 5h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $15 5h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $4 5h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $4 5h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $4 5h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $4 5h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $15 5h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $15 5h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $116 9h
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $201 13h
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $89 15h
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $22 16h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $56 17h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $107 19h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch SELL MIBR fe 36¢ $16 19h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 79¢ $135 21h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch BUY MIBR fe 31¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch BUY MIBR fe 31¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch BUY MIBR fe 31¢ $10 21h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $2 22h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,731.16 · official $4,731.16 (match) · 1689 history records