Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:09:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x094a…64b4
crypto · 1608 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$19 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1428 / 179
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1607 / 1608
History coverage119d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1607 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Under 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 80¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$19
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -2.2% -11.5% 85% 62% -9.0%
≤30d 387 -2.0% -11.4% 84% 72% -10.0%
≤90d 533 -2.0% -11.3% 85% 65% -10.3%
all 1607 -0.6% -10.1% 89% 24% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 24% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.98 · official $2.41 (match) · 3500 history records