Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x094a…a9d2 weather 306 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (397 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$397 (+28%) realized +$397 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +135% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +81% what you keep after slip
Net edge+81%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%209W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day396.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$100
14 days+$99
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (397 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+112.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 345 +154.8% +130.6% 52% 46% -1.2%
≤30d 411 +135.2% +112.8% 51% 45% -2.3%
≤90d 411 +135.2% +112.8% 51% 45% -2.3%
all 411 +135.2% +112.8% 51% 45% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover396.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +112.8% 45% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here +92.4% 38% -11.6%
15% +73.8% 32% -20.2%
20% +56.8% 29% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +135% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +74% → late +196% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$397
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses209 / 202
Open positions10
Markets (closed)411 / 306
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day396.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 17? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+142%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 17? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 5¢ 11¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+120%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+81%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+150%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 200 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 3? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +274%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 17 $0 +$1 +383%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +1678%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $0 +$1 +475%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 25? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +1118%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 31? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +426%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May Jun 17 $0 +$9 +20282%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on May 23? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +420%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 24? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +981%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +592%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 17 $0 +$2 +4021%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +5290%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 28? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 17 $0 +$12 +15836%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 3? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -213%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 25? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 1? Jun 17 $0 $0 -125%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on May 31? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 26? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 −$1 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 17 $3 −$2 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on May 30? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +6434%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -104%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 7? Jun 17 $1 $0 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 2? Jun 17 $0 $0 -506%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -114%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 25? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -105%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 26? Jun 17 $1 −$3 -242%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 2? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -90%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 17 $0 $0 +325%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 17 $0 $0 -119%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1905%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 17 $2 +$2 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 +153%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 17 $0 $0 -502%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on May 25? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +1445%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 17 $0 +$1 +576%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 17 $0 $0 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 31? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 2? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -396%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 27? Jun 17 $1 −$3 -288%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 26m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $3 31m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 5¢ $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 5¢ $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.38 · official $9.00 · 3500 history records