Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
09 0x0949…5d15 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$58 (+5%) realized +$71 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$1
other 24% +$17
sports 7% +$24
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +26.7% +14.6% 60% 60% +14.5%
≤30d 10 +26.7% +14.6% 60% 60% +14.5%
≤90d 10 +26.7% +14.6% 60% 60% +14.5%
all 10 +26.7% +14.6% 60% 60% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.6% 60% +14.5%
10% +3.6% 40% +3.5%
15% -6.4% 40% -6.5%
20% -15.6% 40% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×4.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.15 per $1 lost it wins $6.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$872
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)10 / 18
History coverage5d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $718 $717 −$1 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 26¢ 26¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Another pandemic before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 45¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $43 +$9 +22%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -8%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $12 +$11 +96%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $12 $0 -1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$7 +65%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 +$18 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $12 +$13 +108%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $15 +$3 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $430 1h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $145 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $53 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $46 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $23 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 1h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $171 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $10 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 66¢ $43 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $25 3d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $12 3d
Another pandemic before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $12 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $12 3d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $12 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 80¢ $15 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $101 4d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 4d
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $43 4d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $872.37 · official $872.51 (match) · 34 history records